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Heritage Commerce Corp - HTBK Stock Forecast

Last 6 & 12 Months Return on Investment: 2.29% & 11.84%

Current Price: | Industry: Banking | Market Cap: $0.5B | Next Earnings Release: 25 Jul 2024
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Institutional Analysts' Forecast

4 out of 5 rating

Moderate Buy

Based on 12 Institutional Analyst Ratings where 3% are on Strong Buy, 58.33% on Moderate Buy, 16.67% on Hold, 0.00% on Sell and 0.00% on Strong Sell.

What is Analyst Rating & Why is it important?

An analyst rating is an assessment provided by financial analysts regarding the future performance of a stock or a security. These ratings are based on research conducted by financial experts who analyze the financials, market conditions, and potential risks associated with the company. Common ratings include "Buy," "Hold," "Sell," along with variations like "Strong Buy" or "Strong Sell." Some firms use numerical scales or other terminologies like "Outperform," "Market Perform," "Underperform," etc.

Why is Analyst Rating Important?

Investment Guidance: Analyst ratings provide investors with guidance on the potential performance of a stock relative to market conditions and future earnings expectations. These ratings can influence investment decisions by suggesting whether to buy, hold, or sell a stock.

Expert Insights: Since ratings are based on detailed analyses by financial experts who have deep knowledge of industry trends, market dynamics, and company fundamentals, they offer valuable insights that might not be readily apparent to the general public.

Market Sentiment: Analyst ratings can impact market sentiment and influence the market price of a stock. For example, a series of upgraded ratings can lead to increased investor interest and a rise in the stock’s price.

Performance Benchmarks: They help investors gauge a stock’s potential performance against its peers or the broader market. Analysts often compare companies within the same industry to determine which are likely to outperform.

Risk Assessment: Ratings can signal the level of risk associated with an investment. Higher-risk stocks might be rated as "Sell" due to unstable financials or poor growth prospects, while lower-risk stocks with stable earnings could receive a "Buy" or "Strong Buy" rating.

Analyst ratings, while useful, should not be the sole factor in making investment decisions. They represent opinions and can be subject to biases or based on outdated information if market conditions change rapidly. Therefore, they should be considered alongside other fundamental and technical analyses and aligned with personal financial goals and risk tolerance.

Insider Sentiment

Neutral

Insider Sentiment is based on Insider Transactions. Insider sentiment gives investors a glimpse at what the executives are thinking about the stock price and valuation in the near future.

What is Insider Sentiment & Why is it important?

Insider sentiment refers to the general outlook or attitude of a company's insiders—such as executives, directors, and large shareholders—towards the future prospects of the company, as inferred from their trading activities in the company's stocks. This sentiment is often analyzed through the transactions reported by insiders, such as buys, sells, and option exercises.

Why is Insider Sentiment Important?

Indication of Confidence: Insider trading activity can serve as an indicator of insiders' confidence in the company's future. For example, a high volume of insider buying might suggest that insiders believe the stock is undervalued or that strong future performance is anticipated.

Additional Data Point for Investors: Investors often look at insider sentiment as one of many factors in their decision-making process. Positive insider sentiment, indicated by purchases, might encourage investors to also buy shares.

Early Warning System: Significant selling by insiders may raise a red flag for potential investors and could indicate underlying problems within the company that have not yet become public.

Alignment of Interests: Tracking whether insiders are buying or selling can help ensure that the interests of the executives and directors are aligned with those of the shareholders. If insiders hold a substantial amount of stock, they are likely to act in the best interests of the company.

Regulatory Compliance: Monitoring insider transactions is also important for regulatory reasons. It ensures transparency and fairness in the market, preventing illegal practices such as insider trading based on non-public information.

Despite its benefits, insider sentiment should not be the sole factor considered by investors. Insider trading data can be misinterpreted, and insiders might buy or sell stocks for reasons unrelated to company performance, such as personal financial needs. Therefore, it should be considered alongside other fundamental and technical analysis tools.

Insider Transactions

Filing Date: 2024-05-08

Change: -2470

Name: CABRAL BRUCE H

Transaction Price: 0

Share: 0

Source: sec

Transaction Code: M

Transaction Date: 2024-05-07

Filing Date: 2024-05-08

Change: 2470

Name: CABRAL BRUCE H

Transaction Price: 4.55

Share: 23797

Source: sec

Transaction Code: M

Transaction Date: 2024-05-07

Filing Date: 2024-05-06

Change: -3526

Name: Reuter Deborah

Transaction Price: 0

Share: 7053

Source: sec

Transaction Code: M

Transaction Date: 2024-05-02

Filing Date: 2024-05-06

Change: 226

Name: Reuter Deborah

Transaction Price: 0

Share: 85658

Source: sec

Transaction Code: A

Transaction Date: 2024-05-02

What are Insider Transactions & Why are they important?

Insider transactions refer to the buying, selling, or other forms of trading of a company's stocks by its insiders—executives, directors, and other stakeholders who have unique access to the company’s confidential information. These transactions are required to be reported to regulatory authorities such as the SEC in the United States to ensure transparency and prevent insider trading based on non-public, material information.

Why are Insider Transactions Important?

Indicator of Corporate Health: Insider transactions are often viewed as a barometer for a company’s health and future prospects. For example, a high volume of insider buying might indicate that insiders believe the stock is undervalued or that positive developments are on the horizon.

Market Confidence: Investors may interpret active insider buying as a positive sign that those with the closest knowledge of the company are confident in its future. This can boost overall market confidence in the stock.

Risk Management: Conversely, significant insider selling, unless for well-disclosed reasons such as personal financial management, could signal potential internal issues or a perceived peak in the company’s valuation.

Regulatory Compliance: Monitoring insider transactions helps ensure compliance with securities laws and regulations designed to prevent illegal insider trading. It provides a level playing field for all investors and upholds market integrity.

Investment Strategy: Some investors use insider transaction patterns as part of their strategy, under the assumption that insiders might have better insights into the company’s future than ordinary investors. Following these patterns, however, should be done cautiously and as part of a broader investment analysis.

While insider transactions provide valuable insights, they need careful interpretation and should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. It’s crucial for investors to consider wider financial contexts and market conditions when evaluating the significance of insider behaviors.

Earning Surprises

Actual: 0.17

Estimate: 0.1904

Surprise: -0.0204

Surprise (%): -10.7143

Period: 2024-03-31

Actual: 0.22

Estimate: 0.2397

Surprise: -0.0197

Surprise (%): -8.2186

Period: 2023-12-31

Actual: 0.25

Estimate: 0.2567

Surprise: -0.0067

Surprise (%): -2.6101

Period: 2023-09-30

Actual: 0.27

Estimate: 0.2924

Surprise: -0.0224

Surprise (%): -7.6607

Period: 2023-06-30

Actual: 0.31

Estimate: 0.3101

Surprise: -0.0001

Surprise (%): -0.0322

Period: 2023-03-31

Actual: 0.34

Estimate: 0.3451

Surprise: -0.0051

Surprise (%): -1.4778

Period: 2022-12-31

Actual: 0.3

Estimate: 0.2924

Surprise: 0.0076

Surprise (%): 2.5992

Period: 2022-09-30

Actual: 0.24

Estimate: 0.238

Surprise: 0.002

Surprise (%): 0.8403

Period: 2022-06-30

What is Earnings/EPS Surprises & Why is it important?

Earnings or EPS (Earnings Per Share) Surprises occur when a company's actual reported earnings differ from analysts' consensus estimates. A positive surprise occurs when actual earnings are higher than estimates, while a negative surprise occurs when they are lower. Analysts use historical data, industry trends, and economic conditions to forecast a company's earnings, and these estimates are closely watched by investors.

Why are Earnings/EPS Surprises Important?

Market Reaction: Earnings surprises can significantly affect a company's stock price immediately after the announcement. Positive surprises often lead to an increase in stock price, while negative surprises can cause a decrease. This immediate impact reflects the market's response to new, substantive information about a company's financial health.

Investor Confidence: Consistent positive earnings surprises can enhance investor confidence and perception of the management's ability to forecast and execute business strategies effectively. Conversely, repeated negative surprises may erode trust and suggest operational or forecasting issues.

Performance Benchmark: Analysts and investors closely monitor earnings surprises as they benchmark a company's performance against market expectations. Surprises can lead to changes in analyst ratings and adjustments in market valuation, influencing subsequent investor behavior.

Future Expectations: Regular earnings surprises, either positive or negative, can lead to revisions in future earnings estimates. This can alter long-term investment perspectives and strategies, as the market recalibrates its expectations based on new performance indicators.

Corporate Strategy Insights: Analyzing the reasons behind earnings surprises can provide insights into a company's operational challenges or advantages. For instance, a positive surprise may indicate more efficient operations or capturing of a larger market share, while a negative surprise might highlight cost management issues or declining sales.

Earnings surprises are a fundamental metric used by investors to gauge a company’s short-term performance relative to market expectations. While important, they should be interpreted in the context of other financial and operational measures to fully understand a company’s overall health and trajectory.

HTBK's Financial Metrics

Eps Growth T T M Yoy

-23.52

Eps Basic Excl Extra Items T T M

0.9074

Dividend Growth Rate5 Y

2.8

Payout Ratio T T M

49.25

Tbv Cagr5 Y

13.32

Pfcf Share Annual

7.2213

Eps Normalized Annual

1.0511

Operating Margin T T M

50.09679

Pe Excl Extra Annual

7.848

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What is the industry classification of Heritage Commerce Corp?

Heritage Commerce Corp operates within the Banking sector. This classification helps investors understand the market segment the company competes in and its economic dynamics.

What is the current market capitalization of Heritage Commerce Corp?

As of the latest update, Heritage Commerce Corp's market capitalization is approximately $ 0.5B. Market capitalization reflects the total market value of a company's outstanding shares and gives an insight into the company's size and investment potential.

How has Heritage Commerce Corp's stock performed over the last six months?

Heritage Commerce Corp's stock has seen a return of 2.29% over the past six months. This performance metric is crucial for assessing the stock’s past trajectory and potential future trends.

What recent insider trading activity has been reported for Heritage Commerce Corp?

Insiders of Heritage Commerce Corp, such as executives and directors, have conducted several transactions recently. For example, CABRAL BRUCE H sold/bought 0 shares at a price of $0 per share on 2024-05-07. Monitoring insider transactions can provide clues about the internal sentiment towards the company’s future.

How do analysts currently rate Heritage Commerce Corp's stock?

Currently, Heritage Commerce Corp has received 7 "Buy" ratings, 0 "Sell" ratings, and 2 "Hold" ratings from analysts. Additionally, there are 3 "Strong Buy" recommendations. These ratings can help investors gauge market sentiment and future stock performance expectations.

What is the dividend yield of Heritage Commerce Corp?

Heritage Commerce Corp currently offers a dividend yield of6.18%, with an annual payout of $ 0.52 per share. Dividend yield is a significant factor for income-focused investors.

What does the financial health of Heritage Commerce Corp look like based on recent data?

Heritage Commerce Corp has demonstrated financial robustness with an EPS (Earnings Per Share) growth rate of 4.67% over the last five years, a return on equity (ROE) of 9.58%, and an operating margin of 50.10%. These indicators are crucial for assessing the company's profitability and operational efficiency.

What are the latest earnings surprises from Heritage Commerce Corp?

In its most recent quarter, Heritage Commerce Corp reported an actual EPS of $ 0.17, which was a surprise of -10.7143% above/below the consensus estimate of $ 0.1904. Earnings surprises can influence the stock price significantly in the short term.

Where can I find more detailed financial information about Heritage Commerce Corp?

For detailed financial data and historical performance metrics, investors are advised to refer to Heritage Commerce Corp's quarterly and annual reports filed with the SEC. These documents provide comprehensive insights into the company's financial health and business operations.

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