Apple Inc - AAPL Stock Forecast
Last 6 & 12 Months Return on Investment: 30.52% & 30.19%
Current Price: | Industry: Technology | Market Cap: $3448.0B | Next Earnings Release: 24 Oct 2024
Institutional Analysts' Forecast
Moderate Buy
Based on 54 Institutional Analyst Ratings where 14% are on Strong Buy, 50.00% on Moderate Buy, 22.22% on Hold, 1.85% on Sell and 0.00% on Strong Sell.
What is Analyst Rating & Why is it important?
An analyst rating is an assessment provided by financial analysts regarding the future performance of a stock or a security. These ratings are based on research conducted by financial experts who analyze the financials, market conditions, and potential risks associated with the company. Common ratings include "Buy," "Hold," "Sell," along with variations like "Strong Buy" or "Strong Sell." Some firms use numerical scales or other terminologies like "Outperform," "Market Perform," "Underperform," etc.
Why is Analyst Rating Important?
Investment Guidance: Analyst ratings provide investors with guidance on the potential performance of a stock relative to market conditions and future earnings expectations. These ratings can influence investment decisions by suggesting whether to buy, hold, or sell a stock.
Expert Insights: Since ratings are based on detailed analyses by financial experts who have deep knowledge of industry trends, market dynamics, and company fundamentals, they offer valuable insights that might not be readily apparent to the general public.
Market Sentiment: Analyst ratings can impact market sentiment and influence the market price of a stock. For example, a series of upgraded ratings can lead to increased investor interest and a rise in the stock’s price.
Performance Benchmarks: They help investors gauge a stock’s potential performance against its peers or the broader market. Analysts often compare companies within the same industry to determine which are likely to outperform.
Risk Assessment: Ratings can signal the level of risk associated with an investment. Higher-risk stocks might be rated as "Sell" due to unstable financials or poor growth prospects, while lower-risk stocks with stable earnings could receive a "Buy" or "Strong Buy" rating.
Analyst ratings, while useful, should not be the sole factor in making investment decisions. They represent opinions and can be subject to biases or based on outdated information if market conditions change rapidly. Therefore, they should be considered alongside other fundamental and technical analyses and aligned with personal financial goals and risk tolerance.
AAPL Price Target & Predictions
| High | Median | Low |
|---|---|---|
| $288.75 | $214.20 | $165.64 |
Price Target: $217.42
Based on 44 Analysts price targets, AAPL's price prediction is High: $288.75, Median: 214.20, Low: $165.64, which makes the average price target to be $217.42.
What is Analyst Price Target & Why is it important?
An analysts' price target is a projection of the future price level of a stock as forecasted by financial analysts. This target is based on assumptions about the company's future business performance and is typically set within a specific time frame, such as 12 or 18 months. Price targets are derived from detailed analyses including earnings forecasts, market trends, competitive landscape, and macroeconomic conditions.
Why is Analysts' Price Target Important?
Investment Decisions: Price targets provide investors with an expectation of what a stock could be worth in the future, guiding buy, sell, or hold decisions. A stock trading below its target price may be seen as undervalued, potentially representing a buying opportunity.
Benchmarking Expectations: They serve as a benchmark for measuring the performance of a stock against market expectations. Investors and analysts use these targets to assess whether a stock is performing as expected when reviewed periodically.
Market Sentiment: Adjustments to price targets and changes in the number of analysts covering a stock can influence market sentiment and impact stock prices. An increase in a price target can boost investor confidence, while a decrease can lead to a sell-off.
Evaluating Analyst Sentiment: Price targets reflect the collective sentiment of the analyst community regarding a stock. Multiple analysts raising their price targets might indicate bullish sentiment, whereas cuts in price targets could suggest bearish views.
Risk Management: Understanding where analysts believe a stock price will go can help investors manage risk by setting expectations for potential gains or losses. This can be crucial in portfolio management and risk assessment strategies.
While analysts' price targets can offer valuable insights, they should not be used in isolation. These targets are based on projections that may or may not come to fruition due to changing market conditions or unforeseen company developments. Therefore, they should be considered as part of a broader investment analysis.
Insider Sentiment
Very Negative
Insider Sentiment is based on Insider Transactions. Insider sentiment gives investors a glimpse at what the executives are thinking about the stock price and valuation in the near future.
What is Insider Sentiment & Why is it important?
Insider sentiment refers to the general outlook or attitude of a company's insiders—such as executives, directors, and large shareholders—towards the future prospects of the company, as inferred from their trading activities in the company's stocks. This sentiment is often analyzed through the transactions reported by insiders, such as buys, sells, and option exercises.
Why is Insider Sentiment Important?
Indication of Confidence: Insider trading activity can serve as an indicator of insiders' confidence in the company's future. For example, a high volume of insider buying might suggest that insiders believe the stock is undervalued or that strong future performance is anticipated.
Additional Data Point for Investors: Investors often look at insider sentiment as one of many factors in their decision-making process. Positive insider sentiment, indicated by purchases, might encourage investors to also buy shares.
Early Warning System: Significant selling by insiders may raise a red flag for potential investors and could indicate underlying problems within the company that have not yet become public.
Alignment of Interests: Tracking whether insiders are buying or selling can help ensure that the interests of the executives and directors are aligned with those of the shareholders. If insiders hold a substantial amount of stock, they are likely to act in the best interests of the company.
Regulatory Compliance: Monitoring insider transactions is also important for regulatory reasons. It ensures transparency and fairness in the market, preventing illegal practices such as insider trading based on non-public information.
Despite its benefits, insider sentiment should not be the sole factor considered by investors. Insider trading data can be misinterpreted, and insiders might buy or sell stocks for reasons unrelated to company performance, such as personal financial needs. Therefore, it should be considered alongside other fundamental and technical analysis tools.
Insider Transactions
Filing Date: 2024-10-01
Change: 164626
Name: COOK TIMOTHY D
Transaction Price: 0
Share: 164626
Source: sec
Transaction Code: A
Transaction Date: 2024-09-29
Filing Date: 2024-10-01
Change: 54876
Name: COOK TIMOTHY D
Transaction Price: 0
Share: 54876
Source: sec
Transaction Code: A
Transaction Date: 2024-09-29
Filing Date: 2024-10-01
Change: 11854
Name: KONDO CHRIS
Transaction Price: 0
Share: 11854
Source: sec
Transaction Code: A
Transaction Date: 2024-09-29
Filing Date: 2024-10-01
Change: 43901
Name: Adams Katherine L.
Transaction Price: 0
Share: 43901
Source: sec
Transaction Code: A
Transaction Date: 2024-09-29
What are Insider Transactions & Why are they important?
Insider transactions refer to the buying, selling, or other forms of trading of a company's stocks by its insiders—executives, directors, and other stakeholders who have unique access to the company’s confidential information. These transactions are required to be reported to regulatory authorities such as the SEC in the United States to ensure transparency and prevent insider trading based on non-public, material information.
Why are Insider Transactions Important?
Indicator of Corporate Health: Insider transactions are often viewed as a barometer for a company’s health and future prospects. For example, a high volume of insider buying might indicate that insiders believe the stock is undervalued or that positive developments are on the horizon.
Market Confidence: Investors may interpret active insider buying as a positive sign that those with the closest knowledge of the company are confident in its future. This can boost overall market confidence in the stock.
Risk Management: Conversely, significant insider selling, unless for well-disclosed reasons such as personal financial management, could signal potential internal issues or a perceived peak in the company’s valuation.
Regulatory Compliance: Monitoring insider transactions helps ensure compliance with securities laws and regulations designed to prevent illegal insider trading. It provides a level playing field for all investors and upholds market integrity.
Investment Strategy: Some investors use insider transaction patterns as part of their strategy, under the assumption that insiders might have better insights into the company’s future than ordinary investors. Following these patterns, however, should be done cautiously and as part of a broader investment analysis.
While insider transactions provide valuable insights, they need careful interpretation and should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. It’s crucial for investors to consider wider financial contexts and market conditions when evaluating the significance of insider behaviors.
AAPL's Earnings/EPS Forecast
| High | Average | Low |
|---|---|---|
| $1.71 | $1.57 | $1.41 |
Earnings Estimate: $1.57
Based on 27 Analysts' estimates for the period 2024-09-30, AAPL's estimated EPS is High: $1.71, and Low: $1.41, which makes the average EPS forecast to be $1.57.
What is Earnings Estimate & Why is it important?
An Earnings or EPS (Earnings Per Share) Estimate is a forecast of a company's profitability for a specific period in the future, usually issued by professional financial analysts. This estimate is calculated based on projected company performance, industry trends, economic conditions, and other relevant factors. EPS is particularly significant as it provides a direct insight into a company's profitability on a per-share basis, making it easier for investors to compare profitability across companies and industries.
Why is Earnings/EPS Estimate Important?
Investment Decisions: Earnings estimates are crucial for investors as they form the basis for various investment decisions and valuation models, including the price-earnings ratio, which is a common metric for assessing the value of a stock.
Market Sentiment: Changes in earnings estimates can significantly affect the market price of a stock. For instance, if analysts upwardly revise a company’s earnings estimates, it can lead to an increase in stock price and vice versa.
Company Valuation: Analysts and investors use earnings estimates to gauge a company's future profitability and thus its overall valuation. Higher earnings estimates can raise a company's valuation due to anticipated growth in profits.
Performance Measurement: Earnings estimates serve as a benchmark for measuring a company's performance. If a company consistently beats estimates, it is seen as well managed and financially stable, which can enhance investor confidence.
Risk Assessment: By evaluating the potential deviations from earnings estimates, investors can assess the risk associated with an investment. Large variances between actual earnings and estimates may indicate underlying issues or volatility, impacting investment decisions.
While earnings estimates are a fundamental tool in investment analysis, they are based on forecasts and assumptions that may not always hold true. Therefore, they should be used in conjunction with other financial metrics and qualitative information about the company and industry.
AAPL's Revenue Forecast
| High | Average | Low |
|---|---|---|
| $103376M | $94518M | $86417M |
Revenue Estimate: $94518M
Based on 27 Analysts, AAPL's estimated Revenue for the period,2024-09-30, is between a high of $103376M, and a low of $86417M, which makes the average Revenue forecast to be $94518M.
What is Revenue Estimate & Why is it important?
A Revenue Estimate is a projection of how much income a company is expected to generate in a future period. These estimates are typically made by financial analysts and are based on a variety of factors, including past revenue performance, industry trends, market conditions, and the company's own forward guidance. Revenue estimates are a crucial part of financial modeling and are used to assess a company's future financial health.
Why is Revenue Estimate Important?
Financial Planning and Analysis: Revenue estimates are vital for companies to forecast future cash flows and plan budgets effectively. They help management make informed decisions about resource allocation, capital expenditures, and strategic planning.
Investor Expectations: Investors use revenue estimates to gauge a company's potential for growth. Consistently meeting or exceeding revenue estimates can significantly enhance investor confidence, while frequent shortfalls may raise concerns about the company's future prospects.
Market Valuation: Revenue growth is a key indicator of a company's performance and potential. Analysts and investors use revenue estimates to value stocks, with higher growth often leading to higher stock prices.
Comparative Analysis: Comparing actual revenues with estimates can provide insights into how well a company is performing against market expectations. This comparison can influence stock market performance, as it reflects the company's operational efficiency and market demand for its products or services.
Benchmarking: Revenue estimates allow stakeholders to benchmark a company against its peers. By analyzing how companies stack up against each other in terms of expected revenue growth, stakeholders can identify leaders and laggards within an industry.
While revenue estimates are crucial, they should be interpreted with caution. They are based on assumptions that may or may not hold true, and unforeseen factors can significantly impact actual revenues. Thus, they should be considered as part of a broader analysis that includes other financial metrics and market factors.
AAPL's EBITDA Forecast/Estimate
| High | Average | Low |
|---|---|---|
| $32394M | $31468M | $28557M |
EBITDA Estimate: $31468M
Based on 16 Analysts, AAPL's EBITDA estimate for the period, 2024-09-30 is between a high of $32394M, and low of $28557M, which makes the average to be $31468M.
What is EBITDA Estimate & Why is it important?
An EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) Estimate is a forecast of a company’s operating performance without the impact of financial accounting decisions. It focuses on the earnings from regular business operations before the effects of capital structure, tax strategies, and non-cash accounting items like depreciation and amortization are considered. EBITDA estimates are developed based on projected business activities, economic conditions, and industry-specific factors affecting the company’s operations.
Why is EBITDA Estimate Important?
Operational Profitability: EBITDA provides investors with insight into a company’s core operational efficiency and its ability to generate profit from business activities. It is particularly useful in comparing the profitability of companies within the same industry.
Cash Flow Analysis: Because it excludes non-cash expenses like depreciation and amortization, EBITDA can serve as a proxy for the cash generated from business operations, helping investors assess the liquidity and financial health of a company.
Investment Comparisons: EBITDA normalizes for differences in capital structure, taxation, and fixed asset investment, allowing for more equitable comparisons across companies and industries. This makes it a valuable tool for investors considering diversification across different sectors.
Valuation Metric: EBITDA is widely used in various valuation methods, including enterprise value multiples and comparative analysis. A higher EBITDA estimate can indicate a higher valuation, making a company potentially more attractive to investors.
Leverage and Financial Risk: EBITDA is a key metric used by credit rating agencies and lenders to evaluate a company's ability to service debt. Higher EBITDA estimates may suggest lower financial risk and better debt management capacity.
While EBITDA offers several insights into the financial stability and efficiency of a company, it should not be used in isolation. Since it does not account for capital expenditures or changes in working capital, it should be complemented with other financial metrics to get a full picture of a company’s financial health.
Earning Surprises
Actual: 1.4
Estimate: 1.3732
Surprise: 0.0268
Surprise (%): 1.9516
Period: 2024-06-30
Actual: 1.53
Estimate: 1.5304
Surprise: -0.0004
Surprise (%): -0.0261
Period: 2024-03-31
Actual: 2.18
Estimate: 2.1401
Surprise: 0.0399
Surprise (%): 1.8644
Period: 2023-12-31
Actual: 1.46
Estimate: 1.4194
Surprise: 0.0406
Surprise (%): 2.8604
Period: 2023-09-30
What is Earnings/EPS Surprises & Why is it important?
Earnings or EPS (Earnings Per Share) Surprises occur when a company's actual reported earnings differ from analysts' consensus estimates. A positive surprise occurs when actual earnings are higher than estimates, while a negative surprise occurs when they are lower. Analysts use historical data, industry trends, and economic conditions to forecast a company's earnings, and these estimates are closely watched by investors.
Why are Earnings/EPS Surprises Important?
Market Reaction: Earnings surprises can significantly affect a company's stock price immediately after the announcement. Positive surprises often lead to an increase in stock price, while negative surprises can cause a decrease. This immediate impact reflects the market's response to new, substantive information about a company's financial health.
Investor Confidence: Consistent positive earnings surprises can enhance investor confidence and perception of the management's ability to forecast and execute business strategies effectively. Conversely, repeated negative surprises may erode trust and suggest operational or forecasting issues.
Performance Benchmark: Analysts and investors closely monitor earnings surprises as they benchmark a company's performance against market expectations. Surprises can lead to changes in analyst ratings and adjustments in market valuation, influencing subsequent investor behavior.
Future Expectations: Regular earnings surprises, either positive or negative, can lead to revisions in future earnings estimates. This can alter long-term investment perspectives and strategies, as the market recalibrates its expectations based on new performance indicators.
Corporate Strategy Insights: Analyzing the reasons behind earnings surprises can provide insights into a company's operational challenges or advantages. For instance, a positive surprise may indicate more efficient operations or capturing of a larger market share, while a negative surprise might highlight cost management issues or declining sales.
Earnings surprises are a fundamental metric used by investors to gauge a company’s short-term performance relative to market expectations. While important, they should be interpreted in the context of other financial and operational measures to fully understand a company’s overall health and trajectory.
AAPL's Financial Metrics
Eps Growth T T M Yoy
10.38
Eps Basic Excl Extra Items T T M
6.567899999999999
Dividend Growth Rate5 Y
6.58
Payout Ratio T T M
14.9
Net Interest Coverage T T M
622.5082
Tbv Cagr5 Y
11.34
Pfcf Share Annual
34.6095
Eps Normalized Annual
6.1341
Operating Margin T T M
29.56
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What is the industry classification of Apple Inc?
Apple Inc operates within the Technology sector. This classification helps investors understand the market segment the company competes in and its economic dynamics.
What is the current market capitalization of Apple Inc?
As of the latest update, Apple Inc's market capitalization is approximately $ 3448.0B. Market capitalization reflects the total market value of a company's outstanding shares and gives an insight into the company's size and investment potential.
How has Apple Inc's stock performed over the last six months?
Apple Inc's stock has seen a return of 30.52% over the past six months. This performance metric is crucial for assessing the stock’s past trajectory and potential future trends.
What recent insider trading activity has been reported for Apple Inc?
Insiders of Apple Inc, such as executives and directors, have conducted several transactions recently. For example, COOK TIMOTHY D sold/bought 164626 shares at a price of $0 per share on 2024-09-29. Monitoring insider transactions can provide clues about the internal sentiment towards the company’s future.
How do analysts currently rate Apple Inc's stock?
Currently, Apple Inc has received 27 "Buy" ratings, 1 "Sell" ratings, and 12 "Hold" ratings from analysts. Additionally, there are 14 "Strong Buy" recommendations. These ratings can help investors gauge market sentiment and future stock performance expectations.
What is the dividend yield of Apple Inc?
Apple Inc currently offers a dividend yield of0.44%, with an annual payout of $ 0.95 per share. Dividend yield is a significant factor for income-focused investors.
What does the financial health of Apple Inc look like based on recent data?
Apple Inc has demonstrated financial robustness with an EPS (Earnings Per Share) growth rate of 15.56% over the last five years, a return on equity (ROE) of 156.08%, and an operating margin of 29.56%. These indicators are crucial for assessing the company's profitability and operational efficiency.
What are the latest earnings surprises from Apple Inc?
In its most recent quarter, Apple Inc reported an actual EPS of $ 1.4, which was a surprise of 1.9516% above/below the consensus estimate of $ 1.3732. Earnings surprises can influence the stock price significantly in the short term.
Where can I find more detailed financial information about Apple Inc?
For detailed financial data and historical performance metrics, investors are advised to refer to Apple Inc's quarterly and annual reports filed with the SEC. These documents provide comprehensive insights into the company's financial health and business operations.
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